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Michael, even with a national focus surely we can accept the signalling value of reducing contributions to the global carbon footprint and other harmful emissions. There is a significant benefit in air quality when reducing fossil fuel consumption. If smaller countries adopt the stance that they are excused from participating in the global effort to reduce emissions, especially those that have reaped most of the benefits of the increase over the last couple of centuries, then we remove incentives for larger countries to participate. Isn't effective economic policy about creating favourable incentives?

It is fascinating that the adverse geopolitical impacts you describe as a result of the global warming trend are precisely those predicted by proponents of political cycles, such as Strauss and Howe's Fourth Turning and George Friedman's institutional and socio-economic cycles. It makes me wonder if the weather played a far larger role in historical events than these commentators considered.

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