A somewhat simplistic and disappointing article. To state an average lifespan and then claim that anyone above that is at risk or whatever is meaningless without knowing the distribution.
For instance, hundreds of years ago the average mortality was significantly lower than now (around 40 years). This did not mean that most people died in their 40s, it was simply skewed by a large number of deaths in childbirth and early childhood (largely eradicated due to better hygiene - not vaccines). There was also war to consider - think of killing a few hundred thousand young men and what effect that would have on 'the average'. There were plenty of people years ago who lived well into their 80s and 90s.
Sorry, poor journalism. Without more and better facts, I'm not convinced.
Fair comment: if you were looking for an essay on demographic dynamics, this was not the place. I did mention the possibility that strong-men might be statistically part of a long-tail, but, to be quite honest, this was a pretty light-hearted piece in dark times. Which might also turn out to be right.
Whatever the statistical validity, MT, this cheered me up no end. I have reading up on the last great US believer in tariffs and territorial expansion, McKinley, who beat your numbers by being shot dead. Never give up!
A somewhat simplistic and disappointing article. To state an average lifespan and then claim that anyone above that is at risk or whatever is meaningless without knowing the distribution.
For instance, hundreds of years ago the average mortality was significantly lower than now (around 40 years). This did not mean that most people died in their 40s, it was simply skewed by a large number of deaths in childbirth and early childhood (largely eradicated due to better hygiene - not vaccines). There was also war to consider - think of killing a few hundred thousand young men and what effect that would have on 'the average'. There were plenty of people years ago who lived well into their 80s and 90s.
Sorry, poor journalism. Without more and better facts, I'm not convinced.
Fair comment: if you were looking for an essay on demographic dynamics, this was not the place. I did mention the possibility that strong-men might be statistically part of a long-tail, but, to be quite honest, this was a pretty light-hearted piece in dark times. Which might also turn out to be right.
Or not.
Whatever the statistical validity, MT, this cheered me up no end. I have reading up on the last great US believer in tariffs and territorial expansion, McKinley, who beat your numbers by being shot dead. Never give up!
The only qualification is Stalin. He had a quiet departure.
Though not ruled by an old man I think that Cuba has a revolution before the decade is out.