15 Minutes to Keep the Plebs at Bay

Coming soon: sumptuary laws

The irony is that, even if ‘the 15-minute city’ is a genuinely good idea - and it probably isn’t - then Oxford is probably the last place in the world where it should be trialed and enforced.

Let’s first be positive: there is something attractive in the idea of a city being ‘polycentric’, with everything one might need or want being available within a 15 minute walk or bike-ride. And small cities, typically constrained by medieval walls and street patterns, can achieve something like this (York for example).

But then, ‘the 15 minute city’ plans aren’t aimed at places which are already a near-fit. Rather, they are aimed at much larger cities. And that’s where two massive problems emerge, even before one gets to the loathsome machinery of surveillance apparently needed to implement and patrol the idea. One is social/political, the other is economic.

First, cultural and built wealth is not evenly distributed. Oxford is an extreme example: the astonishing accumulation of architectural, civic and cultural wealth in its centre is indeed available within 15 minutes brisk walk, or five minutes by bike. No problem. If you are lucky enough, or rich enough, to live within this golden-stoned jewel-box, well, lucky you.

Oxford - a jewel box

But a couple of miles up the Cowley Road, and you’re in a very different world: Blackbird Leys. You won’t discover similar cultural treasure on a 15 minute bike ride in Blackbird Leys.

Still Oxford - but Blackbird Leys

Summertown . . . ideal living

But then again, head north for a couple of miles from the centre, and you’re Summertown, where the schools and shopping and neighbours are all absolutely excellent, the river runs lazily, and quite possibly the sun always shines (the clue is in the name). How I long to spend my declining years in Summertown! I might sell a kidney (I’d have to).

Oxford may be an extreme example, but ‘15 minute city’ plans based on restricting movement between different parts of the city must punish social integration and social solidarity, and along class lines. And yes, Oxford has always had a ‘town and gown’ problem, but I know of no major city where social divisions aren’t demarked by different areas: Leeds, Manchester, Bristol, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Glasgow, and, in extreme form London. ‘15 minute city’ barriers to mobility will buttress this tendency by generating de facto quasi-gated communities.

Ah, the enthusiasts say: we can avoid this by drawing the boundaries of the 15 minute polycentres to minimise social exclusion. Even if this were possible, (and it usually isn’t, draw me a map linking Summertown and Blackbird Leys), you can be quite certain that over time People Like Us will tend to want People Like Us as their neighbours. Social stratification by neighbourhood has a long history, and not only in Oxford, not only in Britain.

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The economic argument against ‘15 minute cities’ is fairly simple: study after study of urban economics has demonstrated ‘the returns to agglomeration’. Here’s one: oh, it’s from the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of 2019. It isn’t easy to define rigorously how and why the returns to agglomeration are generated, but the phenomenon is observed almost universally in everything from industrial clustering, scientific research, artistic endeavour, and even plain old retailing.

If the ‘15 minute’ city doesn’t eat into these returns to agglomeration, it won’t be doing its job. Conversely, if the returns to agglomeration survive, it will be because the ‘gated community’ aspect of restricted mobility has triumphed.

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And finally, we have to confront the plans to construct and enforce the ‘15 minute city’ as readied by Oxford County Council. These are unambiuously odious in the first place, and sinister in their potential.

‘In an effort to reassure the public about their 15-minute city plans, Oxford County Council shows a mock-up of how it will work.’;

The plan is to divide Oxford into six “15-Minute City” neighbourhoods, which residents will be allowed to leave by private car a maximum of 100 days a year. Residents will be required to register their car details with the council, and their movements will be monitored by ‘electronic gates’ keeping surveillance on key roads. Cross one of those the 101th time, and there will be an automatic fine.

Who knows what to what uses this surveillance system will be dedicated in the future. Or how it will be ‘upgraded’ and ‘enhanced.’

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Now, there is no doubt that Oxford has too much traffic for infrastructure. But what is so maddeningly characteristic of our time is that the official kneejerk response to problems of supply is always to choke off the demands of the population, whether by taxes or outright bans on activity, rather than make the effort to increase supply. And when efforts are made to increase supply, the cheapest and nastiest solution is grasped at: ‘smart motorways’, inner-city traffic bans, more buses etc (reality check - buses are unpopular because everywhere and always they are horrible).

Why has no-one ever, to my knowledge, explored the idea of a good tram system for Oxford. (Reality check: trams are popular because they are nice).